It is important not to neglect New Zealand. In
many scenarios the primary danger to New
Zealand would be a tsunami coming from the
east . The country has a very tough time when
the tsunamis originate west (Tasman Sea) or
even north. In many of the southern-origin
scenarios Auckland (400,000) and
Christchurch (375,000) escape major damage.
Regrettably, the very charming city of
Wellington almost never fares well. Due to the
peculiar topology of Cook Strait, on average a
southern tsunami is by far the most deadly for
Wellington. Large ships caught in shallow
water or docked would easily be in serious
trouble. Nor would the walls of water be overly
concerned about whether they were more likely
to kill hundreds of thousands of Australia's 20
million people or hundreds of thousands of
New Zealand's 4 million. The two countries are
tightly linked financially and socially. It would
not matter for whom the warning buoy tolled.
How realistic is the threat?