I-MAG STS Corporation
Unfortunately, my prediction equations are not very stable. At this point,
it is somewhat ironic, especially given statisticians' infinite greed for more
data points in a sample, that stability is NOT helped by what seems like the
continual addition of dozens more earthquakes. Currently, 225 events
(correction: now 230 at 03/13 17:55:25 UTC) over 5.0 and 25 over 6.0. I have
cavalierly ignored a similar number of reported earthquakes below 5.0
Richter. That number of 5+ Richter events would be remarkable enough, but
they have all been in a few days AND there are no indications of a slow down.
Presently, even though this event is nearly unique as far as the detailed seismic
measurements available, it looks like a 19% chance of another Richter 8.15
(plus or minus .05 so recorded as 8.1 or 8.2). If that happens, depending on
location and depth, it could just churn debris or be really horrific.