Lebanon
Prior
Late in 2004 we obtained Lebanese data alleged to be much
more accurate that what we had first used. This inflicted
considerable computational misery on us. Scenarios were
literally all over the map: in some Lebanon actually prospered.
Politically, in some forecasts Lebanon became truly
independent but collapsed economically; in others it remained
under foreign control; and in a third set it was effectively
divided into various combinations of Syrian, Hezbollah and
Israeli zones and so on.
We regret to report that mathematically at least nothing has
changed very much.