The New Caledonian intuition not to worry is reasonable – Klipspringer claims 56% of the time after a 5.1
nothing happens, and 21% of time the next earthquake is under Richter 5.0. As the country that currently
interests the user is now known, Klipspringer can do a little background preparation. Since Noumea is on
the southern shore it is likely safe, and it happens that neither New Caledonia nor its neighbors has any of
the three critical risks for a tsunami: large cities, busy seaports or nuclear reactors.
At this time a major marine earthquake and tsunami striking Honshu or anywhere north toward
Kamchatka wouldn’t do that much more damage. In contrast, a more southerly seismic event smashing
Tokyo would be lethal for Japan, so we turn to another interesting target: the northern coast of France.